Goldman Sachs warns oil could hit $150 a barrel by month-end as Hormuz disruption deepens
Global oil markets are facing their most acute supply shock in years, with Goldman Sachs warning that crude prices could breach $100 a barrel within days and reach $150 a barrel by the end of the month if no solution is found to the severe disruption gripping the Strait of Hormuz.
The warning from the US investment bank comes after oil exports through the strategically critical waterway, which links the world's biggest oil producers to buyers across global markets, fell further than Goldman Sachs had initially expected following the US-Israeli attack on Iran a little over a week ago.
The scale of the disruption has surprised analysts and traders alike. Goldman Sachs, which had already revised its near-term price projections upward in the immediate aftermath of the attack, acknowledged that the decline in crude flows through the strait has exceeded its earlier modelling, intensifying pressure on global supply chains.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most consequential energy chokepoints. Any sustained halt to shipping through the waterway carries immediate and far-reaching consequences for oil and gas markets globally.
In the United Kingdom, the crisis is already generating concern beyond the oil market. Authorities have warned of a potential gas shortage crisis as the knock-on effects of the Hormuz disruption begin to reverberate through European energy supply networks.
With no resolution in sight, the trajectory of prices will depend heavily on the duration and extent of the shipping disruption, as well as whether diplomatic or military developments alter the situation on the ground in the coming days.
